Ukraine's 40-day campaign against Russia: has it worked?
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced a 40-day campaign on June 26 aimed at forcing Russia to end the war. Three weeks in, the campaign involves long-range strikes on oil refineries and military targets, causing fuel shortages in Russia.
The Campaign's Nature
On June 26, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy ordered the state security service to launch a 40-day campaign against Russian targets, officially aimed at "influencing the aggressor state to compel it to end the war." Since then, Ukraine has sharply escalated attacks, including strikes on supply lines in occupied territories and Crimea, as well as long-range missile attacks on Moscow and St. Petersburg, triggering a fuel crisis.
Expert Analysis
Orysia Lutsevych, head of the Ukraine Forum at Chatham House, sees the 40-day timeframe as an Orthodox Christian reference to purgatory, implying Russia is already considered "dead." She also notes its political significance ahead of September's Duma elections, potentially undermining Putin's hold on power.
Phillips O'Brien, professor of strategic studies at the University of St Andrews, describes it as a psychological campaign to show Ukraine can take the war to Russia, particularly by precipitating an oil crisis.
Strike Results
Retired Australian General Mick Ryan calls it an "influence operation" and "strategic coercion by attrition." According to Ukraine's general staff, by July 5, 42.74% of Russia's oil refining capacity was disabled, with eight refineries hit and over 60 fuel storage tanks destroyed, causing $13.5 billion in losses.
Impact on Russia
In Russia, long queues at petrol stations have emerged, with some sleeping in cars for days. In Crimea, strikes on key bridges and roads have caused power cuts. The Institute for the Study of War reports political frictions among Russian ultranationalists blaming the government for failing to protect infrastructure.
International Effects
Lutsevych suggests the campaign may have contributed to a shift in the Trump administration's attitude. At last week's NATO summit in Ankara, Trump proposed allowing Ukraine to produce Patriot missile interceptors under license.
Future Developments
Denys Shtilerman, co-founder of Ukrainian missile producer Fire Point, speculates that strikes on Moscow military facilities with new ballistic missiles could begin in September. Lutsevych believes the campaign is likely to continue and intensify beyond the 40-day period.
