Ukrainian exporters partially redirect to alternative routes

According to the Association of International Freight Forwarders of Ukraine, first signs of increased activity have emerged on the Danube, with some wheat and other cargo gradually being redirected there. However, exporters are not ready to fully compensate for the loss of the sea route and are taking a wait-and-see approach, hoping for the restoration of ports rather than more expensive overland logistics.

Alternative routes cannot fully replace the capacity of the Greater Odesa ports, which handled almost 97.2 million tonnes of cargo in 2024, averaging 8.1 million tonnes per month. Greater Odesa is a logistical and industrial hub combining three major ports: Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Pivdennyi.

Exports by rail and road to the EU are limited by border crossing and railway capacity. According to Barva Invest analysts, the ceiling for monthly shipments via this route is approximately 900,000 tonnes. The Danube can handle 1.3 million tonnes per month, but it is also in a risk zone, constrained by draught limits (falling water levels, Bystre estuary at 5.5 m), vulnerable approach bridges, and a shortage of vessels after a period of inactivity.

Romania's Constanța port could once again become a key artery for Ukrainian cargo, but it is entering its own busy season, and Ukrainian cargo will compete for barges, warehouses, rail capacity, and processing time.

As of July 23, inbound vessel traffic to Ukraine's Black Sea ports has been suspended due to the threat of Russian attacks, following weeks of air strikes on Ukraine's Black Sea ports. Maersk has suspended its services at Chornomorsk port due to intensified Russian strikes on port infrastructure.