Germany prepares to blame Russia for Leipzig drone attack, plans sweeping sanctions

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is preparing to publicly attribute the attempted drone attack on Leipzig/Halle airport to Russia, alongside announcing "extensive" sanctions against Russian entities, according to three officials who spoke to POLITICO and WELT AM SONNTAG on condition of anonymity. The announcement is expected early next week, timed to coincide with an EU foreign ministers' meeting in Ireland, though Merz could move earlier.

Officials said that expelling individual Russian diplomats or closing the Russian House in Berlin is no longer seen as sufficient — tougher steps are needed, including intensified sanctions or expanded arms deliveries to Ukraine. It remains unclear whether Berlin intends to hold specific Russian actors or the Russian state itself responsible. A government spokesperson said any formal attribution would only follow a full assessment of the investigation.

The drone, rigged with explosives, was reportedly intended to strike a Ukrainian Antonov cargo plane also used for military transport. A Wall Street Journal report cited U.S. intelligence assessments directly linking Russia to the drone, and officials noted parallels with a 2024 wave of sabotage attacks on European air cargo. Moscow denies involvement.

Political backdrop

The timing is domestically sensitive, with elections due next week in Saxony-Anhalt, where the pro-Russia Alternative for Germany party is leading polls, followed by votes in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin. Two officials described the shift as "Zeitenwende 2.0," echoing former Chancellor Olaf Scholz's 2022 defense policy overhaul.

The decision was also shaped by the discovery of a weapons cache near Berlin's Müggelsee lake, where intelligence agents found two semi-automatic weapons and a large amount of ammunition last October. Germany's federal prosecutor is investigating the find as possible preparation for a serious act of violence against the state.

Recent weeks have seen a string of similar incidents across NATO countries: an explosive-laden naval drone near a Romanian gas project, a foiled arson plot at a Slovak drone factory, an arson attack on an Estonian defense contractor, and explosions at ammunition plants in Italy and Bulgaria.

In parallel, the EU is preparing a major new sanctions package, reviewing roughly 1,600 potential listings including 800 individuals and 800 companies from Russia, expected to be adopted by mid-October. Diplomats say the use of frozen Russian state assets is also back under discussion, though this would require persuading Belgium, which holds the bulk of those frozen reserves.