German conservatives suffer heavy losses in state elections as far-right AfD surges

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz's Christian Democrats (CDU) suffered a heavy defeat in two state parliament elections on Sunday, according to voter surveys conducted by broadcasters ARD and ZDF.

AfD takes lead in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania

In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, polls show the CDU hovering right at the 5% threshold needed to enter parliament — a result that would be even worse than the party's previous historic low of 9%, recorded in Bremen in 1951.

Meanwhile, the AfD is projected to win roughly 37-38% of the vote in the state, more than double its result from the 2021 election. This would put the far-right party ahead of the incumbent Social Democrats (SPD), who are polling at around 36%. By comparison, the SPD won decisively in 2021 with 39.6% of the vote, while the AfD received only 16.7% at the time. The AfD's strong showing follows a similar victory two weeks ago in neighboring Saxony-Anhalt.

Conservatives may lose control of Berlin

In Berlin, the CDU also faces difficulties, with polls showing the party trailing the far-left Die Linke, which is projected to win about 25% of the vote compared to the CDU's 20%. The AfD placed third in Berlin with 13.5-16% support, up from 9.1% in the 2023 election.

Merz's response

Merz described the Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania result as a catastrophe but pledged to continue pursuing reforms. He said Germany's economic and political challenges make difficult, potentially unpopular reforms more urgent rather than less necessary, vowing to pursue them with resolve, persistence and patience.