Germany may face shortage of over 4 million workers by 2036
According to a new forecast by the German Economic Institute (IW), Germany could be short of about 4.3 million workers by 2036 due to demographic changes, a significant increase from previous estimates.
Germany risks a sharp labor shortage due to an aging population and demographic changes, according to a new forecast by the German Economic Institute (IW), as reported by Spiegel and European Pravda.
Analysts estimate that by 2036, the country could be short of approximately 4.3 million workers. Two years ago, IW predicted a deficit of slightly less than 3 million people. The deterioration is attributed to updated demographic data, including a reduced inflow of immigrants and overall population aging. Weak economic prospects and Germany's declining attractiveness for labor migration also contribute.
According to IW estimates, Germany's population could shrink to 81.1 million by 2045 – about 2.9% less than today. The potential labor force will decrease from 55 million in 2025 to 51.2 million in 2036, and to 50.4 million by 2045.
It is noted that by 2036 alone, about 9.8 million people will reach retirement age, creating a significant imbalance in the labor market. IW emphasizes that demographic forecasts have a high degree of uncertainty, as they depend on birth rates, migration, and life expectancy, which can change substantially.
Earlier, the German Reservists' Association called for raising the maximum age for reservists to 70 due to demographic trends. Additionally, a report by the Paritätische association of charitable organizations showed that the poverty rate in Germany rose to a record 16.1% in 2025, meaning about 13.3 million people were classified as poor.
