Will Russia launch a fresh mobilization drive?

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said Russian authorities are planning to "expand mobilization" this autumn, based on intelligence information. He stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin is preparing to recruit additional soldiers for the war against Ukraine, concealing his intentions behind different words and signals. Zelenskyy stressed the importance of partners applying sufficient pressure on Russia so that the idea of peace prevails over further mobilization. He also noted that Russia's army is losing more fighters at the front than it can recruit.

Putin issued a decree in autumn 2022 introducing a "partial mobilization," which remains in effect, as confirmed by the presidential administration in 2023. In late June, independent Russian exile outlet Verstka and Latvia-based news portal Vazhnye Istorii published an investigative report claiming that Russia's leadership was secretly discussing mobilization due to difficulties in recruiting. For example, Moscow sent 1,708 people to the front in April and 1,378 in May, around 1,000 fewer than the same period last year. Recruitment remained low in June. Vazhnye Istorii reported that contract soldier recruitment more than halved in the last quarter of 2025 compared to the previous year, dropping further in early 2026. Military personnel told Verstka that contract soldiers sent this year were "unfit for combat," with many fleeing the front lines. One conscript said units were staffed at 30 to 40% at best.

The US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported in late July that the Kremlin is laying the groundwork for a fresh mobilization. Meanwhile, Verstka reported a surge in demand for rental apartments in Armenia, driven by Russian interest, similar to 2022. Rents in Yerevan have risen by about 30% in recent months, with Russians planning to leave before the State Duma election scheduled for September 18-20.

Russian officials have denied the claims. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov declined to comment, saying "it is not Zelenskyy's job to talk about our plans." Federation Council member Andrei Klishas said mobilization was not being discussed as it was unnecessary. Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of the Security Council, dismissed the rumors as "pre-election propaganda" and claimed that about 200,000 people had enlisted in the first half of 2026.

Military expert Yan Matveyev told DW that information from Russian authorities cannot be blindly trusted, as it is adjusted to align with their objectives. However, figures from independent researchers are not far off, with numbers likely closer to 170,000-180,000 new soldiers over six months. In his view, the current recruitment rate is insufficient for Russia to secure a military victory, and even doubling the army would not enable Russia to defeat Ukraine. He believes that without a fresh mobilization, Russia's army strength will dwindle, with losses growing.