Summer weather forecast: when to take your vacation in Latvia?

Although the first Midsummer bonfires will be lit this weekend, there are still a few days until the night of Jāņi. Weather forecasts are beginning to provide answers to the perennial question: will the summer solstice bring sunshine or rain?

According to Helve Meiterna, chief forecaster of the Environmental Agency, this week will remain rainy, but from Thursday onward, precipitation will decrease and become lighter. At the same time, air temperatures will rise slightly. During the second half of the month, the probability of rain will gradually decline, although isolated brief showers may still occur until the end of June.

Regarding Jāņi, Meiterna expressed hope that a southern anticyclone will strengthen, making the weather drier. However, she hesitated to promise that Midsummer Eve and Midsummer Day will pass completely without rain showers, as cyclones remain relatively close. Based on current data, mostly dry and warm weather can be expected for Jāņi, with a slight chance of brief rain.

Meiterna noted that this June overall may be warmer than usual, while precipitation is expected to be near the climate norm. This means there will be no shortage of rain this month, but it does not imply prolonged gray and wet conditions.

Estonian folk weather observer Arvo Saidla also hopes for summer-like weather without significant precipitation for Jāņi. He pointed out that the rain zone has already moved further north, the cloud cover is gradually receding, and conditions are improving. Saidla uses natural signs—bird and animal behavior, moon phases, and hunters' pig fat—for his forecasts. He promised dry and warm weather for Jāņi.

In contrast, Jāns Kalda, who has been recording weather observations since 1963, expressed doubt that Jāņi will pass without any rain. He hopes that if large cyclones can be avoided, there is a chance for improvement. Until then, significant precipitation may still fall, but good weather could set in for the holiday. Kalda, who lives in a forest near Kurgja, noted that fish are behaving strangely this year—there are many, but they are reluctant to bite.

Regarding the second half of summer, folk weather observers agree that it will likely be drier than June. Meiterna forecasts that in July and August, precipitation will decrease slightly but will be distributed more unevenly. When it rains, it will likely be heavy and localized. Air temperatures in both months may be slightly above the long-term average, but this does not mean constant heat—there will be alternating warm and cooler periods.

Saidla predicted a warm and dry July based on winter signs, while Kalda indicated that after Jāņi, the weather should gradually become drier, with July being one of the driest months, lasting until the first half of August.