Latvia's State Security Service opens criminal case over anonymous sabotage threats against Belarus's neighbours

Latvia's State Security Service (VDD) has opened a criminal case over anonymous threats to carry out sabotage against countries bordering Belarus, including Latvia, Latvian Television (LTV) reports. The case follows incidents on the Latvian-Belarusian border in early October, and its progress matters because experts see the events as a possible attempt by foreign services to create a sense of threat.

Incidents on the border

Latvia's National Armed Forces (NBS) said that on the evening of 5 October a group of at least 20 illegal migrants, led by three masked guides, tried to cross the border unlawfully. Soldiers stopped the attempt. According to the NBS, this provocation was unusually demonstrative and aggressive: the guides threatened soldiers and pushed the migrants toward Latvia. From a distance, they appeared to be armed with a pistol.

Several hours later, masked people entered Latvian territory, damaged an electricity distribution cabinet and stole cameras, Interior Minister Janis Dombrava (National Alliance) said. They returned to Belarus before a border guard unit arrived.

The anonymous video and the criminal case

An anonymous video later appeared on Telegram, in which a group called "Black Rus" (Melnie rusi) supposedly claimed responsibility. A man hiding behind a mask and sunglasses promised further covert operations and sabotage. The VDD began the criminal case on 9 October, citing the creation of a criminal organisation intended to commit especially serious crimes against peace, Latvia and Ukraine. For the sake of the investigation, the service is giving no further comment.

Expert assessment

Experts interviewed by LTV are sceptical that such a group really exists, since intelligence services in aggressor states would not allow one to be formed. Janis Sarts, director of the NATO Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence, believes no such group exists and that the border events are an information operation run by intelligence services. In his view, the aim is to stir up emotions, and the events are directly linked to the authorities of Belarus and Russia.

Border security regime

The government has extended the enhanced border security regime along the Belarusian frontier until the end of the year. It covers Ludza, Kraslava, Daugavpils, Augsdaugava municipality and certain parishes in the Ludza, Kraslava and Rezekne municipalities. The number of illegal migrants stopped this year has already exceeded last year's level.