WSJ: Power Shift in Russia-China Relations – Putin Becomes Beijing's Supplicant
The Wall Street Journal reports that more than four years of war and isolation have shifted the balance in Russia-China relations, turning Vladimir Putin from Xi Jinping's 'role model' into a supplicant and junior partner.
According to The Wall Street Journal, citing sources familiar with the matter, the balance of power in Russia-China relations has shifted dramatically after more than four years of full-scale war and economic isolation. Vladimir Putin, whom Xi Jinping called a 'role model' during his first foreign trip as China's president in 2013, has become a supplicant and junior partner.
Despite both sides projecting an image of a strong and equal alliance, the partnership rests on a narrow foundation with more grounds for disagreement than apparent. The most visible sign of the power imbalance came during Putin's May visit to Beijing, where his primary goal was to secure the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline deal. Chinese officials made clear they would only sign if Russia sold gas at domestic prices—below market rates. Putin left without the deal, and Beijing told Moscow not to raise the issue again until the terms changed.
Trade between the two countries has doubled since the war began, but most growth came in the first years. Chinese goods have flooded Russian markets, causing problems for local producers. Russia needs China far more: China accounts for nearly 40% of Russia's foreign trade, while Russia's share of China's trade is less than 4%.
Beijing has used its economic leverage to force concessions, including making Russia accept the yuan as the primary currency for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Development Bank—a move Moscow had resisted for over a decade. Another source of tension is Russia's military cooperation with North Korea. China rejected Putin's proposal for a trilateral summit, and Xi visited Pyongyang himself in June to reassert China's patronage over North Korea.
Analysts say China is in no hurry to finalize the gas pipeline deal, preferring to wait for Russia's economic situation to deteriorate further. 'China really has a very good chance to turn Russia into a kind of giant Laos, giant Pakistan,' said Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.
