Scientists: 2026 Likely to Become the Hottest Year on Record

Scientists at Berkeley Earth, an independent research organisation in the United States, forecast with 95% confidence that 2026 will be the hottest year in the history of meteorological observations, surpassing the record set in 2024, BBC reports. The conclusion was reached in early November, with almost two months of the year still to go. The forecast comes as the UN climate conference COP31 opens in the Turkish city of Antalya.

Why temperatures keep rising

Researchers say global temperatures are being pushed up by climate change and by El Niño, a natural climate phenomenon in which Pacific Ocean waters become warmer and weather patterns shift around the world. The main driver of global warming is the growing concentration of greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide, in the atmosphere, largely fuelled by the use of oil, coal and natural gas.

"We have experienced several record-hot years in a row. That is exactly what we expect as global warming continues," said Robert Rohde, a researcher at Berkeley Earth. He warned that the world could face even stronger heatwaves, prolonged droughts and other natural disasters in the future.

The World Meteorological Organization is more cautious in its forecasts, but it also expects 2026 to be among the four hottest years on record. It says no significant drop in temperatures is expected in 2027 either, as the effects of the strong El Niño will continue.

Climate talks in Antalya

Over two weeks, representatives of countries at COP31 will discuss cutting greenhouse gas emissions, moving to cleaner energy and adapting to increasingly frequent natural disasters.

Current projections indicate that by the end of the century the average global temperature could rise by 2.8 degrees compared with pre-industrial times. That would significantly exceed the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees.