The Famine of 1877: History Shows Weather Alone Was Not to Blame
German agricultural portal agrarheute looks back at the 1877 famine driven by a powerful El Niño that killed millions. It argues that politics, trade and food distribution shaped the toll, and warns of a new super El Niño in 2026.
German agricultural portal agrarheute has published a historical review of the global famine of 1877, when a powerful El Niño — a climate phenomenon in which Pacific Ocean currents shift and alter weather patterns worldwide — destroyed harvests on several continents. The article links it to the super El Niño now forecast and stresses that hunger stems not only from weather but also from distribution and policy choices.
What happened in 1877
An estimated 50 million people worldwide died of famine between 1876 and 1878, at a time when the global population was about 1.3 billion. In India, drought affected nearly 60 million people, and between 5.6 and 9.6 million starved. In China, up to 13 million are believed to have died, and in Brazil up to 500,000. Harvests also failed in northern and southern Africa.
Not only drought
While famine gripped India, the British colonial government had 320,000 tonnes of wheat exported to England. In Brazil's northeast, farmers grew export crops such as sugar cane and cotton alongside grain for their own use, but lacked food reserves and water management. Export crops promoted erosion and degraded the land, so drought hit especially hard. Historian Mike Davis places the creation of the "first and third worlds" in this period.
The situation today
According to the article, El Niño in 2026 is expected to set records: it developed in mid-2026, should peak between November and December, and will linger until February 2027 or early 2028. Across about 45 vulnerable countries, the number of people facing acute hunger could rise from around 225 million to 274 million. The World Food Programme names Central America, southern and eastern Africa, and South and Southeast Asia as the most at risk. Europe will not face direct hunger, but food prices on world markets may rise and supply chains may come under strain.
The article concludes that weather extremes can now be forecast much earlier, governments can mobilise food reserves, and aid organisations can act before harvests fail. What matters, it says, is whether money, food and political support arrive in time where they are needed.
