Trump's support for Venezuela opposition head Machado wanes

Opposition politician Maria Corina Machado has been planning her return from the United States to Venezuela for months. Following the devastating double earthquake that hit the coastal region of La Guaira in June, she released a video message accusing the interim government led by Delcy Rodríguez of actively obstructing disaster relief. Earthquake victims and some aid organizations echoed her accusation. Machado recorded the video in Panama City, from where she planned to fly to Venezuela. Sources close to her allege that Venezuela's government threatened the airline with a landing ban if Machado were on board, though neither Copa Airlines nor the government has confirmed or denied the claim.

In her video, Machado did not mention an incident reported by The Wall Street Journal in early July. According to the article, in June Machado attempted to fly from the United States to the Dutch-held Caribbean island of Curaçao by private jet and then travel to Venezuela by boat. In December, she had secretly used the same route in reverse to fly to Oslo for the Nobel Prize ceremony. Citing high-level sources, the Journal reported that the private jet was over North Carolina when the US government ordered it back. The State Department cited concerns that political disputes could further complicate relief efforts following the earthquakes.

Machado was long considered US President Donald Trump's most important ally within the Venezuelan opposition, but a rift has emerged. Phil Gunson of the International Crisis Group in Venezuela said the US government does not view Machado as a transitional politician. He noted she was essential to the opposition victory in 2024 but is not a negotiator and even struggles to reach agreements with her own side. The 2024 election was declared a win for incumbent President Nicolás Maduro, though the result was protested domestically and internationally; observers said opposition candidate Edmundo González clearly won. Machado actively supported González since she was barred from running. On January 3, 2026, US troops abducted Maduro and brought him to the US; since then, Delcy Rodríguez has been acting president.

Machado's presidential ambitions have never been in doubt, but the longer she remains abroad, the more she fears her popularity in Venezuela may erode. The earthquake disaster seemed the right moment to attempt a return, even at the risk of breaking with her US backers. Gunson noted Trump has repeatedly indicated that democratization is secondary to US interests, and the US plan prioritizes stabilization, reconstruction, and reconciliation over democratic elections. The plan focuses on Venezuela's natural resources, investment opportunities for US companies, and weakening China's influence in the Americas.

Political scientist Benigno Alarcón Deza wrote that the earthquakes expose fault lines in US policy, marking a break with long-standing foreign policy dedicated to weakening socialist governments since the Cold War. Alarcón said Trump now appears to seek to protect remnants of Chavismo. The US administration lacks a consistent strategy: some in Trump's inner circle accuse Machado of opportunism, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio, according to The Wall Street Journal, repeatedly expressed understanding for her desire to return. Rubio openly supports democratization in Latin America, possibly eyeing a 2028 presidential run, and often distances himself from Trump's foreign policy moves. BBC correspondent Tom Bateman said Rubio tends to shift blame onto Trump. Gunson concluded that Machado's return now could further destabilize the country, so Trump's decision to deny her return, regardless of motives, may be correct, as focus should remain on rescue efforts.