US senators demand crackdown on wildfire prediction markets

US senators have called for a crackdown on prediction markets that allow trading on wildfires, according to a report by Ars Technica.

Polymarket, described as the main rival of the platform at the center of the issue, defended its approach. A spokesperson said in an emailed statement that the company does not profit from outcomes and that people come to Polymarket for information. Removing these markets, the spokesperson argued, would not prevent a tragedy but would make the most accurate information less accessible to those who need it. The same spokesperson also noted on background, a condition Ars did not agree to, that Polymarket does not currently have any wildfire markets and has not had them for some time. The spokesperson declined to answer follow-up questions about whether Polymarket claims, by definition, to provide the most accurate information to people caught in a wildfire.

Wildfire experts reacted with alarm. Michael Gollner, a professor at the UC Berkeley Fire Research Lab, said such markets could create a perverse incentive for arson or other destructive activities. He said society should not focus energy on monetizing the outcome of devastating natural disasters, but rather on mitigating these events with targeted investments before they start to make communities more resilient.

Riva Duncan, president of Grassroots Wildland Firefighters, said her community is “pretty disgusted” by these betting markets. She said the idea that people hope to make money off tragedy is beyond comprehension, and suggested asking people in Spokane who recently lost their homes how they feel about it.