US-Saudi nuclear deal raises concerns about arms race in the Middle East

US President Donald Trump agreed to a 30-year nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia on Wednesday, under which Washington would transfer nuclear technology to the Gulf kingdom. US officials have stressed the deal is for civilian purposes, but exact details have not been made public. The agreement has been submitted to the US Congress for review and is expected to survive Democratic opposition.

Analysts have raised concerns that the deal could allow Saudi Arabia to enrich its own uranium, a necessary step for developing nuclear weapons. Saudi Arabia has long stated its intention to use nuclear energy for power generation, but in 2018, de facto leader Mohammed bin Salman said the kingdom would "without a doubt" develop a nuclear weapon if Iran did the same. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio insisted on Thursday that the deal would not lead to proliferation because US contractors would handle the project, allowing Washington to monitor it.

Former Israeli Defence Minister Avigdor Liberman called on Israel to oppose the deal "with all our might," warning that Saudi Arabia's civilian nuclear program would end in nuclear weapons and lead to a mad arms race across the Middle East. Israel, which developed its nuclear arsenal in the 1960s, has long sought to prevent Arab and other regional countries from acquiring nuclear weapons.

Some also fear that nuclear reactors could be targeted in attacks amid regional tensions. Iran's Bushehr nuclear power plant has had outer facilities hit by US and Israeli strikes, and Iran has struck the perimeter of the UAE's Barakah plant with a drone. Although reactors have not been hit, damage to a reactor core could release highly radioactive gases, causing catastrophic damage within a 20–30 km radius.

The deal's terms on access to sensitive materials remain unclear. According to US media, the agreement includes a clause for a "black box" uranium enrichment facility in Saudi Arabia, run by US companies. A two-year joint study will determine whether such a facility is needed. Matthew Kroenig of the Atlantic Council noted that no such arrangement exists elsewhere and expressed concern that Saudis could learn the technology and later expel the US. In contrast, the UAE, whose civilian nuclear program is a gold standard for non-proliferation, imports all its low-enriched uranium from France, the UK, and Russia.