Aurora's CFO says 30,000 driverless trucks by 2030 is achievable, not aspirational
Autonomous trucking company Aurora told investors it aims to have over 30,000 self-driving trucks on the road by 2030 generating $5 billion in annual revenue, despite ending 2026 with just 200 trucks. Investors remain skeptical, with shares continuing to fall since the announcement.
Autonomous trucking company Aurora unveiled an ambitious growth plan to investors last week, targeting more than 30,000 self-driving trucks on U.S. roads by the end of 2030, generating roughly $5 billion in annual revenue. That's a steep jump from where the company expects to be at the end of 2026: just 200 driverless trucks and about $80 million in annual revenue run rate.
CFO David Maday told TechCrunch in an interview that while 30,000 trucks sounds large for the autonomy industry, it's a small slice of the overall truck market, noting that the four major manufacturers produce between 250,000 and 300,000 new trucks annually. He said the target is achievable rather than merely aspirational.
Investor skepticism
Investors haven't warmed to the plan so far. Aurora's shares have kept sliding since the company's annual investor day on September 23, closing down 12.42% on Monday at $5.29. Maday said the real inflection point begins in 2027, when the company expects to grow from 200 driverless trucks at the end of 2026 to more than 1,000 a year later.
Shifting business model
Aurora currently runs a transportation-as-a-service model, owning and operating its trucks for customers including Detmar Logistics, Hirschbach, McLane, and Werner, charging roughly $2 per mile. Next year, the company plans to shift toward a driver-as-a-service model, where customers purchase the self-driving trucks themselves and pay Aurora a subscription fee of about $0.85 per mile for the autonomous technology, while Aurora maintains the self-driving systems.
The company expects to reach breakeven gross margins on a run-rate basis in the first half of 2027 with about 500 trucks operating. Late 2027 brings a third-generation hardware platform, mass-produced by partner Aumovio (formerly Continental), which will also finance and service the equipment. By 2030, Aurora plans to expand operations from a handful of Southern states to most of the continental U.S., and Maday confirmed the company still intends to eventually enter the robotaxi market.
