DeepState: Kostiantynivka May Repeat Pokrovsk Scenario, Russians Ignore Losses
Russian forces have reached the outskirts of Kostiantynivka in Donetsk region and continue infiltrating the city. If the city falls, it will open the way to the capture of the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration.
Situation in Kostiantynivka Deteriorates
According to the monitoring project DeepState, Russian occupiers have reached the outskirts of Kostiantynivka (Donetsk region) from multiple directions and continue to infiltrate the city. Analysts describe the scenario as the heaviest possible: the enemy is exerting pressure and penetrating deeper into the settlement.
Infantry movements are recorded from the east via Novodmytrivka, and constant detections from Berestok and Illinivka. DeepState notes that the Russians have an advantage in manpower near the city and are gradually transitioning to a prolonged absorption, reminiscent of the Pokrovsk scenario.
City Reduced to Ruins
Analysts point out that the Russian army does not count losses – similar to Pokrovsk, where despite heavy losses, the city was occupied, and Ukraine also suffered massive casualties. DeepState states that Kostiantynivka is being leveled to the ground, turned into continuous ruins that will be difficult to hold in the future.
Gateway to Sloviansk-Kramatorsk Agglomeration
DeepState calls Kostiantynivka the "gateway" to the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration. If it falls (which is a matter of time), the next target will be Druzhkivka, which currently plays a critical logistical role, followed by Kramatorsk. Once the city comes under enemy control, the logistics for Ukraine's Defense Forces in the area will change dramatically, creating additional difficulties for any movement, and even being in Kramatorsk will become extremely dangerous. Then the Russians will need to open another "gateway" to Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.
Ukrainian Military Comment
At the same time, the Ukrainian Armed Forces assess the situation as not critical. Commander of the 19th Army Corps, Brigadier General Oleksandr Bakulin, stated on June 15 that there are likely about 123 Russian soldiers in Kostiantynivka. He emphasized that the situations in Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka are not identical and that it is premature and exaggerated to say the enemy has any specific control in the city.
