Security officials: Russia has no concrete plan to attack Baltic states, Poland

Following a flurry of media reports last week about a potential Russian attack on Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland, security officials from several countries have downplayed the claims. According to Delfi and Baltic Flank, rumors have circulated since spring about an alleged meeting in Russia where a directive was reportedly given to draft plans for potential provocations. These provocations would be hybrid in nature and fall below the threshold of NATO's Article 5 collective defense principle. The Baltic states, Poland, Finland, and Moldova were raised as potential targets.

However, an Estonian security policy official told Delfi: "I have not received any information that a political decision has been made to actually carry out a provocation." A second Baltic intelligence source said: "Today, there is no known date, no concrete plan, and no designated organizer for such a provocation."

A Latvian foreign and security policy official added: "There are no indications of a looming military provocation. We see no changes in Russian military presence or preparations [aimed at the Baltics]."

Overall, security experts emphasize that while hybrid provocations are theoretically possible, there is currently no concrete evidence or plan indicating an immediate threat of attack.