EC Report: Latvia Faces Population Decline and Aging Society

The European Commission's (EC) latest report on demographic change in the European Union (EU) indicates that Latvia will continue to experience population decline and aging. According to the report, Latvia already has one of the highest median ages in the EU – approximately 44 years in 2025, up from 2015 levels.

The report forecasts rising life expectancy: for women, it reached about 80 years in 2025 and could exceed 90 years by the end of the century; for men, it is projected to increase from around 70 years to 85 years. At the same time, Latvia's fertility rate is among the lowest in the EU, with a total fertility rate of about 1.14 children per woman in 2025, expected to rise to 1.55 by 2100.

The share of foreign-born residents in Latvia is modest and lags behind countries like Luxembourg, Malta, and Cyprus, where this indicator is significantly higher. The EC notes that these demographic trends will put pressure on labor markets, healthcare, care systems, and public finances, while also creating opportunities for innovation and the development of a "longevity economy."

Overall, the EU population is projected to decline from the current 450.6 million to about 445 million by 2050 and 398.8 million by 2100. For Latvia, based on Eurostat projections, the population is expected to fall from approximately 1.86 million in 2025 to 1.53 million by 2050 and 1.23 million by 2100.

To mitigate the impact of demographic change, the Commission recommends targeted policies in skills development, housing affordability, care, and regional development.