Researcher: Conventional Russian invasion of Baltics unlikely, but hybrid threats cannot be ruled out
Nika Aleksejeva, a researcher at the NATO Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence and the Atlantic Council's DFRLab, states that a direct military invasion by Russia in the Baltic states is currently unlikely, but preparations should be made for asymmetric hybrid attacks that may fall outside NATO's Article 5.
In an interview with LETA, Nika Aleksejeva, a digital environment researcher at the NATO Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence who also contributes to the US-based think tank Atlantic Council's DFRLab, said there are currently no indications that Russia is preparing a conventional invasion of the Baltic states similar to World War II. However, she warned that this does not mean the threat has disappeared.
The researcher believes a potential Russian attack would be asymmetric and hybrid in nature – one that cannot be clearly interpreted as direct military aggression and would not fall under NATO's Article 5 (collective defense). At the same time, Aleksejeva noted that it cannot be entirely ruled out that Russia already has attack plans, so various scenarios must be prepared for.
Aleksejeva emphasized that the Baltic states should not console themselves with the idea that Russia's aggressive rhetoric is mere propaganda. She urged not to remain unprepared – residents should have 72-hour emergency kits and well-equipped shelters. “It is not pleasant to feel threatened, but it is even more unpleasant to be unprepared if something happens,” she added, noting that we live in a time when potential threats must be taken into account.
