Expert Warns of Several Less Obvious Risks for Fertiliser Prices in 2027
At a conference in Poznań, a representative of the company Adob warned that sulphur shortages, costly gas, metal prices and export restrictions could keep pressure on fertiliser prices in 2027. She said the risks mostly point upward.
Fertiliser prices may stay high in 2027 because of several less obvious factors. That was the assessment of Agnieszka Czepukowicz, Procurement Lead Poland, speaking at a conference organised by the company Adob in Poznań, Poland. She said the current situation is exceptionally unpredictable and that continued cost pressure is more likely than a quick return to stability in raw material markets.
Gas, oil and the Strait of Hormuz
Natural gas remains one of the main drivers of nitrogen fertiliser prices. The expert explained that pressure on energy prices stems mainly from the geopolitical situation, especially the conflict in the Middle East. Shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz prevent gas and oil tankers from freely leaving the Persian Gulf region. An added risk is the low level of gas stocks in Europe ahead of winter: storage was filled to only about 74%, while at this time of year it is normally 80–90%. Europe must also compete for liquefied natural gas (LNG) with Asian buyers, above all China.
Sulphur and metals
More than 90% of sulphur is a by-product of oil and gas processing, and about half of global seaborne sulphur trade depends on supplies from the Persian Gulf region. Sulphur underpins sulphuric acid, which is needed to make phosphoric acid and phosphate fertilisers such as monoammonium phosphate (MAP). Sulphur problems can therefore affect the prices of fertilisers that contain no sulphur.
Producers of micronutrient fertilisers compete for raw materials with the energy, technology and defence industries. Copper prices have risen by about 50% year on year, exceeding USD 14,500 per tonne, and molybdenum by 32%. Zinc reached around USD 3,800 per tonne.
Export restrictions, weather and CBAM
China and Turkey have restricted exports of sulphuric acid, and Egypt those of urea. Low water levels on the Rhine and Danube hinder cargo transport, while a strong El Niño can reduce palm oil output after 12–18 months, intensifying competition for chemical-industry raw materials.
An extra cost comes from CBAM, the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism, which equalises CO2 emission costs on imports. Estimates suggest that in 2026 it could cost imports USD 65 per tonne for urea, USD 217 for ammonium nitrate and USD 161 for CAN fertiliser. The expert stressed that these are averages.
