Analyst: Putin unlikely to ever seek genuine peace talks with Ukraine

Kristi Raik, director of the International Centre for Defence and Security Studies, said on ETV's "Välisilm" programme that Russia's escalating attacks on Ukraine are aimed at intimidating not just Kyiv but its allies, in an effort to weaken Europe's resolve to keep supporting Ukraine.

According to Raik, Russia is constantly searching for new pressure tactics because the war is not going well for it. Moscow has grown more willing to take risks and escalate, betting that Europe is not prepared to respond with tougher measures. She noted that, unfortunately, Russia has largely been right so far, pointing to Germany's comparatively weak response to the incident at Leipzig airport as an example of Western reactions falling short of expectations.

Call to bolster support

Raik argued that this is a critical moment to help Ukraine strengthen its air defences and to tighten sanctions on Russia further, noting that many available options have still not been used.

At a recent Arctic-focused meeting in Rovaniemi, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned that the coming weeks could bring decisive developments. Raik interpreted this as a signal that Russia is preparing new attacks within Europe. She said the countries whose support matters most to Ukraine, Germany foremost among them, are the primary targets, adding that conditions for Russian influence operations are currently more favorable in Germany or France than in the Baltic states.

Raik said US President Donald Trump has yet to take any substantial steps to pressure Russia, even though his stance toward Ukraine has occasionally turned more supportive. She agreed that, at present, it appears Washington wants peace considerably more than Moscow does.

Having visited Ukraine, Raik said no one there expects the war to end before next spring. In her assessment, Putin will fail to achieve his stated objectives, leaving him with little alternative but to continue the war — or, at best, to scale back fighting if it becomes too costly and risky for Russia.