Experts: Russia's Fuel Crisis Keeps Getting Worse

Ukrainian drones have systematically targeted Russian oil refineries, leading to a motor fuel shortage across the country. The latest attack overnight hit the Kapotnya refinery on the outskirts of Moscow for the second time, marking the largest aerial assault on Russian soil since the war began. The refinery supplies Moscow with motor fuel. Ivan Preobrazhensky, a Moscow-born political analyst living abroad, said the attack is heightening anxiety among residents of the Russian capital. "If Moscow experiences a real fuel shortage, considering that Kapotnya supplied the city — not entirely, but to a very large extent — then Moscow will certainly grind to a halt," Preobrazhensky said.

Due to systematic drone strikes, Crimea has run out of motor fuel entirely, and shortages have spread to other parts of Russia. Peeter Luikmel, head of the Foreign Economy Subdivision at the Bank of Estonia, noted that about 80 larger oil refineries have been hit, some multiple times. "July and August will probably be the most difficult months for Russia because fuel consumption is around 10 percent higher then, while supply is currently estimated to be 10 percent lower. All things considered, the market shortage could reach as much as 20 percent," Luikmel said.

Economic expert Raivo Vare said the crisis is worsening. "At some point it will become truly widespread. Imagine the Moscow metropolitan area, where people are limited to buying 20 liters per car, while at the same time they want to drive to their dachas, as is customary in the summer, or head south for vacation," Vare said.

In addition to restricting fuel sales at gas stations, Russia is trying to ease the situation by offering lower-quality fuel. According to Luikmel, gasoline meeting Euro 3 standards, which contains higher pollutants, is now being sold as if it met Euro 5 standards. This damages newer car engines. The shortage also affects aviation fuel and the broader economy, including the chemical industry and agriculture. Vare warned that the military gets priority, leaving insufficient fuel for tractors and farm work, leading to smaller harvests and potential food supply problems.