Erkki Koort: The Kremlin Wasted Its Window of Opportunity, Now It Has Opened for Ukraine

Russia briefly held a unique window of opportunity in early 2025 when U.S. President Donald Trump promised to end the war in Ukraine and focused pressure on Kyiv. However, Moscow failed to achieve decisive battlefield gains, and Washington's attention shifted toward a potential confrontation with Iran.

Koort argues that Russia's hopes for a breakthrough have evaporated. Although Moscow initially believed Trump would be easy to influence, peace negotiations effectively stalled. Kyiv masterfully played along, pretending to engage in diplomacy while strengthening its own position.

Ukraine's confidence has grown significantly, boosted by European support and its own capabilities. Europe, in turn, has strengthened its self-confidence through this support. Russia, expecting a more favorable deal, missed the moment when it could still dictate terms.

Russian state-controlled media now emphasize that Trump genuinely tried to achieve peace but failed. Meanwhile, a European initiative led by Germany, France, and the United Kingdom is taking shape to produce tangible results in support of Ukraine. Discussions about reforming the European External Action Service are also underway.

Moscow, hoping for a better deal, has let the right moment pass. Ukraine's confidence continues to rise, and Russia faces its least preferred scenario.