Estonia's Centre Party and Social Democrats Take Joint Lead in Party Poll as Isamaa Drops to Third
In the October survey by Estonian pollster Emor, the Centre Party and the Social Democratic Party rose to first place, pushing Isamaa down to third. Emor expert Aivar Voog says many voters' preferences are unsettled and the coming election could shift support significantly.
In Estonia, the Centre Party and the Social Democratic Party have climbed to first place in Emor's October party rating, while Isamaa ("Fatherland"), which led for a long time, has fallen to third. Aivar Voog, an expert at the polling firm Emor, said in an ERR web programme that many voters' party preferences are not yet settled, and that the upcoming election, together with more active campaigning by parties, could significantly change support.
What has changed in the ratings
Voog noted that party ratings have changed little month to month over the past year, but the shifts of the last two months are linked to the approaching election. Parties have become more active and have started advertising campaigns, and the ratings are also affected by new members joining.
Of Isamaa, he said that confidence in its support has never been very high and that its base includes many casual supporters, who have now begun to spread out differently. The Social Democrats overtook Isamaa by a small margin. Previously they were most popular among young people; now they are also the top choice among middle-aged people. Voog observed that young people may not vote, while middle-aged people are active voters.
A new member for the Social Democrats
On Thursday, 22 October, Jonatan Vseviov, a security expert who served for many years as Chancellor of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and is the Social Democrats' candidate for prime minister, announced that he was joining the Social Democratic Party. Voog said Vseviov is little known to the wider electorate, although he is known among opinion leaders and educated people. His competence in foreign and security policy is high, but he has yet to prove himself in economic policy.
Conservative parties' voters
According to Voog, passive voters may be found, for example, among supporters of EKRE (the Conservative People's Party of Estonia). They are typically men over 60 living outside Tallinn who follow the alternative media channels the party uses. In the latest Emor poll, EKRE's rating exceeded 13%, and Voog believes that figure may stay stable. It remains unclear whether the party can reach other residents and whether its potential voters will turn out to vote.
Voog added that the electorates of more conservative parties include many passive voters, whose turnout is lower than among people with more liberal views. In his view, conservative forces are likely to prevail again this time.
