Estonia's defense minister debate raises deeper question: who really runs the government?

Estonia continues to debate a Cabinet reshuffle following the resignation of two ministers, with most attention focused on the nomination of a new defense minister. The Reform Party has put forward reserve general Martin Herem, former commander of the Estonian Defense Forces, as its candidate.

Herem has told journalists he expects the authority to make personnel decisions, a political mandate to act across ministries and government agencies, and the ability to quickly change laws and procedures. The justification given is the need to rapidly strengthen Estonia's defense capabilities, based on an assessment that the war in Ukraine could end within six months, after which direct military threats to Estonia would sharply increase. Herem has not said whether he intends to join the Reform Party or run in the spring elections. Personnel changes in the Ministry of Defense reportedly began even before his formal appointment, with Permanent Secretary Kaimo Kuusk dismissed at Herem's request.

Concerns over institutional balance

Commentary on the matter stresses that laws in Estonia are passed and amended by the Riigikogu, not by ministers or the prime minister, raising questions about what a promise to quickly change obstructive laws actually entails. Critics warn that granting one minister the power to intervene across ministries, replace personnel and fast-track legal changes would effectively create a "chief executive" with special powers — a model that could fragment Estonia's broad-based approach to national defense, which relies on coordination across the economy, energy, internal security and other sectors.

Revolving-door concerns

Additional concern centers on the so-called revolving door between the state and the defense industry. Estonia's Internal Security Service has flagged in its annual review the risks tied to people moving between defense decision-making roles and the defense industry. It is also noted that as commander of the Estonian Defense Forces, Herem implemented a COVID-19 vaccination requirement during which dozens of service members were dismissed; courts later ruled some of those dismissals unlawful.