ISW: Kremlin seeks economic gains from US but refuses to concede on war aims
The US-based Institute for the Study of War concludes that Moscow is pursuing economic cooperation with Washington that would help sustain its war on Ukraine, while giving up none of its goals. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump is again talking about peace in Ukraine.
Russia is trying to extract economic benefits from talks with the United States that would let it continue its war against Ukraine, while conceding nothing on key issues. That is the conclusion of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US-based think tank that analyses the conflict and its political context, in its daily assessment. The finding comes as US President Donald Trump, ahead of the midterm elections to Congress, is again speaking about achieving peace and said on Wednesday that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin would meet soon.
The diesel deal
In October, Trump announced deliveries of Russian diesel fuel. He explained the move as an effort to curb rising energy prices; global fuel prices climbed sharply after the US and Israel began a war against Iran in February. Sources told Reuters the export permission is part of an administration plan to bring Russia back to the negotiating table. The Financial Times reported on 28 October that the Trump administration is discussing broad economic cooperation projects with Russia, hoping this could encourage Putin to agree to end the war.
Moscow's statements
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on 27 October that the agreement reached on 9 October is purely commercial and contains no conditions requiring Russia to take political steps. Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov said on 13 October there is no direct link between the deal and peace talks. This contradicts the 12 October claim by Kirill Dmitriev, head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, that the deal advances efforts toward peace.
ISW argues that Kremlin officials are trying to separate economic agreements from peace talks to win concessions from Washington, while Russia itself has not budged on any issue that would allow meaningful negotiations to begin.
Demands on NATO and Europe
The Kremlin has also revived its December 2021 ultimatum calling for NATO's military presence to return to its pre-1997 state. ISW says this would give Russia a veto over NATO decisions and restrict countries' right to choose alliances. Experts also point to Moscow's wish to exclude Europe from negotiations.
Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine has lasted since 24 February 2022, and the war overall since 2014, when Russia occupied Crimea.
