ISW: Kremlin Unprepared for Trump's Changed Rhetoric on Ukraine War
The Institute for the Study of War says Russia is not ready for the new US approach, including promises of Patriot system licenses to Ukraine, and is trying to downplay events to maintain dialogue with Washington.
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According to the latest analysis by the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Kremlin is currently unprepared to respond to Donald Trump's new rhetoric regarding the war in Ukraine. The institute recalls that after the US-Russia summit in Alaska in August 2025, no written agreement was signed, which undermines Russia's efforts to use the meeting as a diplomatic tool.
Meanwhile, ISW notes that senior US officials have recently publicly acknowledged Ukrainian tactical and operational successes on the front, directly contradicting Russian claims of continuous advances. According to the institute, the Kremlin is trying to downplay the significance of these developments, including the agreement on the production of Patriot systems, to maintain the possibility of continuing dialogue with the US and hope for more favorable terms in negotiations with Ukraine and its allies.
In recent days, Donald Trump has announced that the US could grant Ukraine a license to produce Patriot systems, emphasizing that Americans would provide the technology and Ukraine would quickly master it. Trump also stated that Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries constitute escalation, but could help speed up the end of the war. At the same time, the US president expressed confidence that Vladimir Putin wants to end the war and has recently changed his conditions for ending the conflict.
