ISW: Putin and Gerasimov Overstate Russian Gains in Ukraine

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US think tank that analyses military operations, has concluded that Russian President Vladimir Putin and Valery Gerasimov, chief of Russia's General Staff, made a series of false statements on 16 October about the Russian army's progress in the war against Ukraine. According to the institute, Moscow is using such claims to try to pressure Ukraine and its Western allies.

What the Kremlin claimed

Putin said that since the beginning of 2026 Russian forces had taken about 6,500 square kilometres of Ukrainian territory and 310 settlements. Gerasimov claimed that since 1 September they had captured more than 1,800 square kilometres and 92 settlements. He also spoke of confident advances in the Kharkiv, Sumy, Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions.

What ISW says

The institute's data indicate that since the start of the year Russian troops have actually taken about 100 square kilometres and 69 settlements. Since 1 September they have suffered a net loss of 122 square kilometres, it says. Analysts note that since early October the invaders have lost an average of seven square kilometres per day.

ISW also rejected Gerasimov's claims that Ukrainian defenders had been encircled in northern Kharkiv region and that 461 square kilometres had been seized. Yevgeny Nikiforov, commander of Russia's Northern Group of Forces, had said the so-called "security zone" along the Russia–Ukraine border extends more than 600 kilometres, with 465 kilometres, or about 75%, under Russian control. According to ISW, Russian forces actually control only 205.77 square kilometres of that zone.

Putin also stated that Ukraine controls only 2,748 square kilometres, around 10% of Donbas. The institute notes that since September Russian forces have lost more than 198 square kilometres in Donetsk region, while Ukrainian troops control 5,530 square kilometres, over 20% of the region.