What a New Israeli Government Would Mean for Arab Neighbors
After an Israeli parliamentary election with no clear winner, analysts expect little fundamental change in relations with Arab neighbors and Palestinians, whoever forms the coalition. Only small improvements are predicted, mainly regarding Syria and Lebanon.
Coalition talks have begun in Israel after a parliamentary election that produced no clear winner. It is not yet known whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will stay in office or whether his opponents, led by Gadi Eisenkot, head of the Yashar party, will form the government. Reactions from Arab countries have so far been muted or absent. Analysts broadly agree that relations with Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Egypt and the Gulf states are unlikely to change sharply.
Eisenkot appears to have won about 16% of the vote. Egyptian politician Mostafa Bakry wrote that the two men are "two sides of the same coin."
The Palestinian question
Beth Oppenheim of the European Council on Foreign Relations says an Eisenkot government would be politically fragile. The biggest differences would be domestic: it would halt the judicial overhaul, open a state inquiry into the October 7 attack and pass a conscription law. In foreign policy there would be no fundamental shift, she says, because nearly all Jewish Israeli parties have embraced Netanyahu's post-October 7 security doctrine. Eisenkot himself said in August that no Palestinian state would be established under a government he forms. Israel's Arab-led parties, thought to have increased their seats to around 19, may be needed for a new coalition.
Analysts say a less extreme government could curb settler violence in the West Bank and move forward with the next stage of the Gaza ceasefire.
Saudi Arabia, Syria, Lebanon
Saudi Arabia's conditions for normalization have hardened since the Hamas attack of October 7, 2023 and Israel's military campaign in Gaza. Some behind-the-scenes cooperation exists, and a less hardline government might make it easier for countries to acknowledge it.
In Syria, Israeli troops remain on Syrian territory, and US-mediated security talks ended without a deal. Former Knesset member Ksenia Svetlova believes an agreement would become more probable, though it would take time. In Lebanon, commentators believe negotiations on Israeli withdrawal from the south and the disarming of Hezbollah would be easier with Eisenkot.
