Climate Service: 2026 Could Become Second-Hottest Year on Record
The EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) says in its monthly bulletin that 2026 will almost certainly exceed the 1.5°C threshold above pre-industrial levels. This October was the warmest October on record.
The European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) has said in its monthly bulletin that 2026 could become the second-hottest year in recorded history. There is still a 20% chance that this year will be as hot as, or even hotter than, 2024, which remains the hottest year on record.
C3S projects that global temperatures in 2026 will almost certainly exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial period. The four-year average from 2023 to 2026 is also expected to surpass that level. The 1.5-degree mark is the limit set in the Paris climate agreement.
Warmest October on record
The service reports that the world experienced its warmest October on record this year. The average global surface air temperature was 1.75 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial era, defined as the period from 1850 to 1900.
Samantha Burgess, strategic climate lead at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), which oversees C3S, said that a notable global warming trend continued in October, with record-high global and ocean surface temperatures recorded. She added that a particularly strong El Niño climate pattern is further intensifying warming.
Why 1.5 degrees matters
Scientists warn that global warming above 1.5 degrees Celsius intensifies extreme weather and raises the risk of irreversible changes, from the die-off of coral reefs to the thawing of permafrost.
Climate conference
Next week, the UN climate change conference, COP31, will begin in Turkey. It will bring together representatives from nearly 200 countries to discuss ways to halt global warming, as well as support for poorer nations facing the climate crisis.
