Nauseda: Russia Will Keep Provoking NATO but Is Unlikely to Launch a Large Attack Now

Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda said in an interview with the German outlet WELT that he does not see a conventional Russian attack on NATO, the North Atlantic military alliance, as possible at present, but expects provocations by Russian President Vladimir Putin to continue. Politico reported on the interview. The assessments matter because they show how Lithuania's leadership views threats along the alliance's eastern border and where the war in Ukraine may be heading.

Resources tied up in Ukraine

Nauseda does not believe Russia is currently able to carry out large-scale operations. In his words, Russian resources are occupied on the battlefield in Ukraine, where Moscow is not making progress.

Hybrid attacks will continue

The president said Putin will keep testing NATO and will increasingly come close to testing Article 5, the alliance's collective defence clause. Russia, he said, wants to observe how NATO responds to hybrid attacks. Examples include airspace violations by drones, cyberattacks and arson.

Nauseda expects such actions to continue not only along NATO's eastern flank but also in Germany, Denmark and other countries. In his view, Russia is probing the alliance's resolve and whether a collective response will follow if certain red lines are crossed.

Prospects for talks

The Lithuanian president sees no serious Russian willingness to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine before next spring. He believes Moscow will use the winter months to increase pressure on Ukraine. Nauseda thinks the Russians will only pretend to discuss ending the war, and said he does not trust them. He expects Putin to make demands that Ukraine has never been able to accept.

However, if Ukraine survives this winter, which Nauseda is confident it will, the chances of serious negotiations will increase in 2027. He does not expect them sooner.