Climate change doubles wildfire risk in southwest France, raises it 20-fold in central Spain, study finds
A new analysis by World Weather Attribution finds that human-caused climate change has made extreme wildfire conditions twice as likely in southwestern France and 20 times more likely in central Spain. The researchers also point to the need for preventive measures alongside firefighting efforts.
Scientists from the World Weather Attribution network have concluded that human-induced climate change is significantly increasing the likelihood of weather conditions that fuel wildfires. In southwestern France, such extreme conditions are now twice as probable as in the past, while in central Spain they are 20 times more likely, according to the study released on Friday.
The analysis relied on historical weather records to track how hot, dry and windy conditions — key factors in making fires hard to control — have evolved over time. These conditions serve as an indicator of how difficult it would be to suppress a fire once it starts.
The planet's average temperature has risen by about 1.4 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, largely due to greenhouse gas emissions from burning coal, oil and gas, the World Meteorological Organization reports.
Under the current climate, extreme fires of the intensity observed now are expected to occur roughly once every 20 years in southwestern France and once every six years in central Spain, the study says.
Clair Barnes, a researcher at Imperial College London and co-author of the analysis, said the findings were especially alarming because the fire season is still in its early stages, with another heatwave approaching. She noted that repeated evidence shows how climate change creates hot, dry and flammable conditions conducive to wildfires.
A key factor behind Europe's growing wildfire risk is the combination of wet winters and dry springs and summers. Wet winters encourage vegetation growth, while subsequent dry periods leave forests filled with large amounts of highly flammable plant material.
The authors argue that reducing wildfire risk requires more than just emergency response. They call for preventive measures such as clearing dried vegetation from forests before the fire season begins and adopting landscape management strategies that take fire risk into account.
This year, Spain experienced its wettest January in 25 years, followed by what the country's meteorological agency described as the hottest summer on record. France is currently enduring its fourth heatwave of the year.
Recent scientific studies have also confirmed that human-caused climate change has made Europe's hot and dry conditions in recent months more likely.
