Ministry: Lower Inčukalns Gas Storage Level Does Not Threaten Winter Supply

Latvia's Ministry of Climate and Energy (KEM) has stated that the Inčukalns underground gas storage facility is less full this autumn than a year ago, but this does not raise concerns about natural gas supply security in the coming heating season. The ministry told the news agency LETA. The facility is important for gas supply in Latvia and Estonia, so its fill level is watched as an energy security indicator.

Volumes in storage

Inčukalns currently holds 12 terawatt-hours (TWh) of natural gas, including 1.8 TWh of the state security reserve. This equals roughly 72% of the capacity reserved for the 2026/2027 storage cycle. The technical capacity set for this season is 24.4 TWh, of which 16.6 TWh is reserved. For comparison, Latvia's annual gas consumption is about eight TWh, with households using around one TWh.

Why the role of storage has changed

Historically, the storage site was practically the only gas source for Latvia and Estonia during the heating season, because no gas arrived in the region by pipeline in winter. Supply now also comes from liquefied natural gas terminals in Klaipėda and Inkoo, and through the Poland–Lithuania interconnector GIPL. The ministry stresses that diversified sources let traders organise deliveries more flexibly without reducing security. The largest traders have confirmed that their stocks and volumes ordered at terminals are sufficient for winter.

Storage levels are also shaped by traders' strategies. If a lower price is expected, they may store less gas; if higher prices are anticipated, they may store more. Storage periods have become shorter, and gas can be withdrawn in summer or injected during the heating season. KEM says that after modernisation, a relatively high withdrawal rate can be maintained for longer even when the storage is not very full.

What to expect in coming months

KEM expects total stocks in the fourth quarter to stay close to the current level. The operator, AS Conexus Baltic Grid, says the facility is ready to take injections during the withdrawal season and that withdrawals will alternate with additional injections in the coming months. User interest in buying extra capacity has risen significantly.