Opinion: After US midterms, Trump's clout is waning, but risks for Ukraine and the Middle East remain
The Guardian's foreign affairs commentator Simon Tisdall argues that Democratic gains in the US midterm elections have weakened President Donald Trump. He warns this could affect Russia, Israel, Iran and Ukraine, though not necessarily for the better.
Donald Trump's international influence has diminished after the US midterm congressional elections, in which the Democratic Party performed strongly. That is the assessment of Simon Tisdall, foreign affairs commentator at the British newspaper The Guardian, in an opinion piece published on 8 November. The article is the author's analysis and judgment, not a news report.
Why the author sees a shift
Tisdall writes that the result was a personal repudiation of Trump, who had asked voters to treat the vote as if he were on the ballot. In his view, this feeds hopes in Iran, Israel, Ukraine and Europe. He notes that Democrats will take charge of both chambers of Congress in January, so Trump and senior officials are likely to face tougher scrutiny. He also suggests Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth could become a political casualty.
Russia and Ukraine
Tisdall argues that Trump's weakness could paradoxically speed up a ceasefire in Ukraine. He believes Russian President Vladimir Putin, facing battlefield setbacks and economic problems, will try to strike a deal while Trump is still in office. The author warns that US negotiators might press Kyiv harder for territorial concessions and keep limiting weapons and intelligence support.
Iran, Israel and other issues
The author cautions that Trump rarely compromises and could resist the pressure and expand the war against Iran. In Israel, he expects any new government to keep denying basic Palestinian rights, with more or less US support. He also raises the possibilities of easing tariff disputes with Europe and Canada, or of carrying out earlier threats to abandon NATO.
Tisdall expects most US policies not to change significantly before 2028. He says the Democrats, once they control the purse strings, could restore overseas aid funding. He concludes by citing progressive election wins in Hungary, Serbia and Brazil, and suggests similar outcomes may follow in Spain and in France in 2027.
