Kremlin Lowers United Russia's Election Target as Support for Putin Declines
The Kremlin has reduced its election target for United Russia to 45% of the vote in the September elections, down from an initial 55%, as falling support for President Putin, gasoline shortages, and war fatigue take a toll.
In March 2026, Russia's Presidential Administration announced it expected United Russia to win 55% of the vote with 50% turnout in the September elections. However, sources in regional administrations told Meduza the actual target was 60% with 55% turnout. By June, pro-Kremlin media reported the target had been lowered to 50% with turnout unchanged. In mid-July, multiple officials and United Russia members from the Central, Northwestern, and Far Eastern federal districts, along with a source close to the Presidential Administration, confirmed the target had been reduced again to 45% for many regions, with turnout still at 50%.
An official from an "average" region said his region's KPI initially was 55%, then dropped to 50%, and now to 45%. He believes it will not drop further. A United Russia lawmaker from another region confirmed that his region also had "middling" results. In regions with traditionally high results, the target was lowered to 50% with turnout of 50–55%. The so-called "electoral sultanates"—regions known for abnormally high results—saw no change, as their vote-rigging machinery runs smoothly.
A Meduza source close to the Presidential Administration cited gasoline shortages, rising prices, and public fatigue with the war in Ukraine as reasons for the drop in ratings. VTsIOM data showed trust in Putin fell from 79% in January to 71% in July, and approval from 75% to 65%. After a methodology change, willingness to vote for United Russia dropped to 27% in April but recovered to 35% by July.
A political strategist working with the Administration said the target could be raised before the election in some regions where governors can deliver more votes. Deputy governors for domestic policy may be summoned to meet with Sergey Kiriyenko and Alexander Kharichev to discuss boosting results. Another source said the political bloc is working on "legitimizing" the outcome, with officials asked not to pressure budget-funded employees excessively.
The strategist suggested an official result of 45% for United Russia would be perceived as closer to the real number and raise fewer doubts than 50% or 60%. United Russia would still win a constitutional majority through single-mandate districts, but Kiriyenko might push for at least the 49% achieved in 2021.
