NATO Opens Talks on Forces and Funding to Counter a Possible Russian Attack
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization is discussing what forces and weapons it needs to defend against a possible Russian attack and how to pay for them. Politico has identified five key issues to resolve, with capability targets set for 2029.
NATO, the North Atlantic military alliance, has begun talks on what forces and weapons its members will need to defend against a possible Russian attack, and on how to finance them. According to the U.S. outlet Politico, the talks will set the alliance's defence capability targets for 2029, because European officials warn that Russia could be ready to attack a NATO member by then. The outlet spoke with 15 current and former NATO officials and diplomats to identify five main questions.
Ambitions and the U.S. role
First, allies must agree how many troops and what military capabilities each country will provide for the alliance's joint defence plan. They must also settle how conventional forces, such as ground units or aircraft, will be supplied by nuclear-armed members, including the United Kingdom and the United States.
Second, they must decide how to make up for a possible reduction of U.S. capabilities in Europe. There are concerns that Washington could move vital assets, such as heavy transport aircraft, out of the continent. Camille Grand, a former assistant secretary general of NATO, said the U.S. used to fill any gaps, but that this has now changed. One solution could be to require operational tasks, such as destroying Russian command posts, rather than specific types of weapons.
Regions, equipment and lessons from Ukraine
Third, allies hold differing views on regional priorities. Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, attention has focused mostly on the eastern flank, and over the past year also on the north and Greenland. Some members want more focus on the south and southeast, where threats cited include Russian mercenaries in Libya, the risk of migration being used as a weapon, rising submarine activity and drone attacks on ships in the Black Sea.
Fourth, investment must be balanced between drones and traditional equipment such as tanks and artillery. Grand said population ageing and staff shortages are pushing wider use of unmanned systems. French Navy admiral Pierre Vandier has proposed a subscription-style system in which equipment is regularly renewed.
Fifth, NATO must weigh the lessons of the war in Ukraine. Member states acknowledge the value of Ukraine's large, battle-hardened army and its technology, though some caution that the war differs from NATO doctrine. Europeans also worry that if U.S. President Donald Trump's policy moved closer to Russia, transatlantic ties could deteriorate. Europe currently cannot replace U.S. early-warning systems, Patriot air defence or the Starlink satellite network.
