In a Few Months or Half a Year. When Fuel Prices Could Return to Pre-War Levels?
The US and Iran have agreed to end the war in the Middle East that closed the Strait of Hormuz and disrupted energy supplies. Oil prices have fallen, but economists expect fuel prices to recover slowly.
The United States and Iran have reached an agreement to end the war in the Middle East, which led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and severely disrupted shipments of energy resources and various raw materials for several months. The market has already responded positively, with crude oil prices falling significantly and Brent crude dropping to $81 per barrel.
Economists forecast that fuel prices will continue to decline, but they are unlikely to return to pre-war levels within the coming weeks. The recovery could take several months or up to half a year, as supply chains need time to normalize and the market adjusts to the new geopolitical reality.
Experts note that while the agreement is a positive step, the full normalization of shipping and energy flows will take time. The conflict caused significant disruptions—many tankers were rerouted, insurance costs rose, and refineries adjusted operations. The return to pre-war price levels also depends on the stability of the ceasefire and the resumption of normal operations in the region. Therefore, consumers should not expect an immediate drop in fuel prices at the pump. Although wholesale oil prices have fallen, the decline in retail gasoline and diesel prices will be gradual.
