Study: US-UK pharmaceutical deal could lead to 229,000 excess deaths
Research published in the British Medical Journal warns that a trade deal between the UK and US requiring increased NHS spending on new medicines will result in 229,000 excess deaths by 2036 due to diversion of funds from other healthcare areas.
A study published in the British Medical Journal (BMJ) has found that a United Kingdom-United States pharmaceutical trade deal could cause 229,000 excess deaths as a result of diverting billions of pounds away from Britain’s National Health Service (NHS).
In December, the UK and US signed a pharmaceutical trade deal under which the US government agreed not to impose tariffs on UK pharmaceutical and medical technology exports for three years. In return, the British government committed to increasing NHS spending on new US medicines from 0.3 percent of GDP in 2026 to at least 0.6 percent by 2036, raising overall medicine spending from 10 percent to 12 percent of the NHS budget.
UK politicians defended the deal, with Science Minister Patrick Vallance stating in April that it provides NHS patients access to “life-changing new medicines that they previously would have been denied”. However, the BMJ study found that the commitment to spend much more on new branded medicines over the next decade without any increase in NHS funding will “create substantial opportunity costs elsewhere, having a direct effect on population health”.
Professor Samuel Cross from the University of Liverpool, a co-author of the report, said the agreement “benefits pharmaceutical companies and comes at a cost of NHS patients”.
The study forecast that if spending targets are met and the economy grows, the NHS would need to spend an extra £1.3 billion annually by 2028, rising to £8.8 billion by 2036, totaling about £44.7 billion by the end of 2036.
The report predicted roughly 229,000 excess deaths by 2036, more than the 137,000 excess deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic between March 2020 and June 2022. The greatest number of deaths would occur among cardiovascular, respiratory, gastrointestinal and cancer patients. Cross called for the government to release an impact assessment to trigger public discussion about the deal's true value for Britain.
