Study: Loss of Trust Paves the Way to Russian Propaganda in the Baltics

Researchers from the University of Tartu, the University of Latvia and Vilnius University examined which factors are linked to belief in Russian propaganda narratives in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. A survey conducted in the three Baltic states involved 1,218 people. The study was published in the Journal of Contemporary European Studies. Its authors are Uku Kangur and Rajesh Sharma of the University of Tartu's Institute of Computer Science, Girts Dimdins of the University of Latvia and Darius Plikynas of Vilnius University.

What was measured

Participants were not asked whether they support Russia. Instead, they were given 20 statements representing ten propaganda narratives, such as that NATO enlargement triggered the war against Ukraine, that leaving the Soviet Union brought the Baltic states only economic decline and population loss, that defence spending serves foreign interests, and that Western countries are in moral decay. Susceptibility was defined as the degree to which a person agreed with these statements.

Trust matters more than the channel

Using Telegram, Odnoklassniki or VKontakte did not in itself mean greater susceptibility. A clearer link appeared when a person considered information received there to be credible. Trust in traditional media, recognised experts and science, by contrast, was associated with lower susceptibility. Age, gender and most socio-economic characteristics did not distinguish respondents as consistently.

Native language was one exception. In Estonia and Latvia, Russian-speaking respondents on average agreed more often with propaganda statements than those whose mother tongue is the country's main language. In Lithuania there were too few Russian speakers to draw conclusions. The authors say language should not be read as a sign of loyalty but as a gateway into an information space.

Friends, emotions and total distrust

In Latvia and Lithuania, respondents who regarded friends and family as the most reliable sources agreed with propaganda narratives more often. Susceptibility was also linked to a preference for information confirming existing beliefs, and to a feeling that social media worsens one's mood or radicalises one's political views. The study cannot establish cause and effect.

Complete distrust is not a safeguard either. Another study described a "trust vacuum" among Estonia's Russian-speaking audience: after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, trust fell not only in Russian media but also in sources from Estonia, Western countries and Ukraine.

The research was a cross-sectional survey using an online panel, and people with lower levels of education were relatively few in the sample.