PIMCO chief warns of AI market downturn even as demand for tech bonds stays strong
The CEO of bond giant PIMCO told a Hong Kong investment summit that the AI market will see a downturn. Meanwhile, new bond sales by major tech companies continue to draw heavy demand.
Emmanuel Roman, chief executive of bond investment firm Pacific Investment Management Co. (PIMCO), said at the 2026 Global Financial Leaders' Investment Summit in Hong Kong that the artificial intelligence (AI) market will face a downturn, "and then things are going to break." The warning matters because PIMCO has been a prominent financier of AI deals, while big tech borrowing to fund AI infrastructure keeps growing. Bloomberg reported on the summit, and The Verge commented on the story.
Debt markets and financing needs
Roman has estimated that the AI buildout could create $2 trillion in financing needs over the next five years. The entire US bond market is about $12 trillion. The costly buildout has already strained debt markets and made raising cash harder, yet demand has not faded.
Meta drew $58 billion in orders for a bond offering expected to total $15 billion to $20 billion. Oracle said on Monday it would need another $20 billion in bonds on top of its existing commitments. Alphabet, Google's parent company, is selling €6 billion (about $6.7 billion) of bonds, and Microsoft recently sold $25 billion of bonds for the first time in a decade.
PIMCO's role and other warnings
PIMCO has been active in AI deals: it was among the financiers of the first CoreWeave chip-based financing in 2023, made about $2 billion in paper gains last year from $29 billion in Meta bonds, and bought $4 billion of SpaceX bonds last month. The firm recently sold some of its AI debt.
Investment firm Apollo Global Management, which has been in talks with SpaceX about a $40 billion chip deal, also urged caution. Apollo president Jim Zelter told analysts he expects far greater use of computing power in the future, but said significant uncertainty remains over how pricing and economics will evolve.
Roman named US rate hikes, war or a eurozone crisis as possible triggers. Separately, Wall Street banks competed to finance $63 billion in debt for Anthropic.
