Rail Baltica delay in Estonia cuts technical risks but raises financial ones, says Rail Baltic Estonia chief

Anvar Salomets, chairman of the management board of Rail Baltic Estonia, the company delivering the project in Estonia, says that pushing back the completion of the international Rail Baltica railway line lowers technical risks but could increase costs because of inflation.

In September, the prime ministers of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania announced that completion of the line, which runs through the three Baltic states, would move from 2030 to the end of the next EU budget period, that is, 2034. The line was originally meant to be fully built by 2026.

New deadlines in Estonia

On the Estonian section, the Tallinn–Pärnu stretch is now to be finished by 2032 at the latest, Soodevahe–Muuga by 2033, and Pärnu–Ikla by 2034.

Salomets said the earlier baseline schedule, with a 2030 end date, assumed that all preconditions would be met on time. In Rail Baltic Estonia's assessment, a two-year delay for Tallinn–Pärnu and a four-year delay for Pärnu–Ikla reduce technical and scheduling risks. A longer timetable also lowers, or largely insures against, the risk of price rises that could result from an overheated construction market.

The main technical risk eased by the two-year extension on Tallinn–Pärnu is settling of the railway's earth embankment. The extra time also reduces the risk of delays linked to the complexity of handing over land for works, to signing the contract for the control and signalling system, and to the volume of testing and commissioning work.

Salomets stressed that a somewhat extended schedule lets engineers optimise technical solutions during the design stage and cut investment costs.

At the same time, he acknowledged that a longer timetable may increase risks related to inflation and timely funding. All sections of the route require funding to be secured on time in the coming years so that the deadlines of 2032 and 2034 are met.