Slaidiņš: Putin's falling ratings could hinder mobilization and fuel protests in Russia
Latvian National Armed Forces major Jānis Slaidiņš suggests that growing war fatigue in Russia may lower Putin's approval ratings, potentially complicating further mobilization and increasing social tensions.
In a TV24 broadcast on the war in Ukraine, Latvian National Armed Forces major and National Guard staff officer Jānis Slaidiņš noted that discussions about a potential decline in Russian President Vladimir Putin's approval ratings are becoming more frequent in the information space. This could indicate growing public dissatisfaction with the Kremlin.
Slaidiņš highlighted that Russian society is increasingly feeling the consequences of the war: drone and missile strikes, shortages of fuel and goods, internet restrictions, and fears of an expanded mobilization. Uncertainty about the war's duration and possible outcome is also growing.
Historically, Putin's ratings have often spiked during military conflicts such as the Chechen wars, the war with Georgia, and the annexation of Crimea, which temporarily strengthened the regime's position. However, the prolonged war in Ukraine may have the opposite effect, according to Slaidiņš.
A drop in ratings could be dangerous, as it may hinder the implementation of new mobilization campaigns and increase social tensions. This in turn could fuel protest sentiment and erode trust in state institutions.
Slaidiņš also pointed out that in Russian power structures, historically, a decline in public support has often been compensated by military escalation rather than political resolution.
Regarding the possible use of nuclear weapons, he emphasized that such a move would likely not change the course of the war significantly, as modern warfare has adapted to other tactics, including drones and asymmetric operations. He also noted that any resolution to end the war depends on Moscow's decisions, while international negotiations require real leverage, which may currently be lacking.
