Starlink restriction in Ukraine exposes SpaceX's dominance of the space industry

Last week, Starshield, the military version of SpaceX's Starlink satellite internet service used by the Ukrainian army, was throttled so that terminals travelling above a certain speed lost access. Ukrainian interceptors that counter Russian bomb-carrying drones suddenly stopped working at high speeds. That made it easier for Russia to strike Ukraine's energy infrastructure, and two people were reportedly killed and at least 17 injured. The episode matters because it shows how much a country's defence, and the wider space industry, depends on a single company and a single man.

Conflicting statements

Ukraine's military said it received no advance warning. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called the restriction a direct message from the US amid rising tension between him and US President Donald Trump. Elon Musk, SpaceX's chief executive, then said the company has no control over Starshield and that the US military makes the decisions, while the White House denied taking any action. Later reports said Musk himself suggested the slowdown to Trump, and then that Musk ordered the restrictions unilaterally.

Starlink access in Ukraine has been restricted before, including in 2022, when coverage was not extended to support a counterattack in Crimea. Access has now been restored.

A de facto monopoly

SpaceX's Falcon 9 is the most successful rocket in history, and the company's rideshare programme, which lets small satellite operators share a rocket, has pushed launch prices to historic lows. Yet Wendy Whitman Cobb of the School of Advanced Air and Space Studies at Maxwell Air Force Base in Alabama says SpaceX effectively has a monopoly on launch. Oğuz Karasu, a space economist at the Oxford Space Initiative, notes that launch makes up about 8 percent of the space industry, but the rest cannot exist without it.

The experts also say they have heard complaints that Falcon 9 launches are getting more expensive, and that Starlink prices have risen considerably since its 2020 beta.

Dependence affects NASA and the Space Force

SpaceX is reportedly set to stop taking new Falcon 9 missions from 2028. The US Space Force is therefore struggling to find launch options for its military satellites, while NASA could lose access to the Crew Dragon capsule that carries astronauts to the International Space Station. In February this year, problems with Falcon 9 temporarily grounded it, raising concerns that NASA's Crew-12 mission could be delayed.