Switzerland to Vote on Capping Population at 10 Million
Swiss voters will decide on June 14 on a far-right initiative to limit the permanent population to 10 million after 2050, sparking debate over economic impacts and potential spillover effects in Europe.
On June 14, Swiss voters will head to the polls for a referendum on the Civilian Service Act and a far-right initiative called "No to 10 million," proposed by the Swiss People's Party (SVP). The initiative aims to cap Switzerland's permanent population at 10 million by 2050. A similar proposal failed 12 years ago.
Economists warn of significant consequences. Tobias Heidland from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) predicts widespread dissatisfaction among businesses, as many highly skilled workers may choose not to migrate to Switzerland. Sabine Zinn from the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) argues that a blanket cap ignores the distinction between refugee and labor migration, adding that demographic challenges and labor shortages already exist in Switzerland and many European countries.
Wido Geis-Thöne from the German Economic Institute (IW) in Cologne highlights that sectors like tourism, hospitality, and construction, which rely heavily on EU workers, would be particularly affected. According to Bloomberg, Swiss think tank Demografik calculated that economic output could drop by up to 12% by the end of the century, with healthcare, hospitality, IT, and construction facing the worst labor shortages.
The referendum could also influence other countries. Geis-Thöne believes Germany cannot follow suit due to EU free movement rules, but Heidland sees a risk that Germany might adopt stricter policies. Zinn fears the vote could serve as a signal for far-right governments elsewhere. Notably, Geis-Thöne suggests Germany could benefit if skilled workers stay, while Switzerland would suffer, especially if it breaks with the EU—its largest export market, granting access to a $23 trillion market.
