Drone strikes push Russian grain exports to shift through Baltic ports, including Latvia

Russian grain exporters are increasingly turning to Baltic Sea routes after Ukrainian drone strikes disrupted ports, export terminals and cargo vessels in the Black and Azov Sea region. Last season Russia shipped 46.3 million tonnes of grain through that southern region — around 90% of its total seaborne grain exports.

As a result, part of the cargo flow is now being redirected north. By August 18 this season, rail transport requests to Russia's Baltic Sea ports had already reached five million tonnes, while interest in Baltic state ports — particularly in Latvia — is also growing.

Volumes could rise several times over

Although political relations between Russia and the Baltic states remain tense, grain transit through the region never fully stopped. Last season it totalled roughly one million tonnes, down from about 2.5 million tonnes two years earlier. Industry representatives now expect a significant increase: the head of Russia's Grain Union estimates that exports through the Baltic states could reach five to six million tonnes this season, while the head of the Sovecon consultancy anticipates a sharp rise in shipments through Baltic states and Russia's own Baltic Sea ports as soon as September.

Baltic route cannot fully replace southern ports

Experts stress, however, that the Baltic direction cannot fully offset losses in the south. Capacity at Russia's own Baltic Sea ports is estimated at up to seven million tonnes of grain per year, while the combined grain-handling capacity of all three Baltic states' ports exceeds 18 million tonnes — some of which is already used for other European countries' cargo. According to estimates from Russian industry representatives, the country's remaining ports and overland routes combined could replace only about half of the volumes previously carried through the Black and Azov Seas.