Expert: Ukraine could grow its army without indefinite military service
A Ukrainian security analyst argues that a rotational service model with a fixed term could build a force of over a million troops without relying on open-ended mobilization. He says the real obstacle is poor organization and lack of trust, not a shortage of people.
Ukrainian security commentators are floating an idea that the country could build a permanent, effective armed force of more than a million service members by introducing a rotational system with fixed service terms, rather than continuing to rely on indefinite mobilization.
The calculation is based on Ukraine's population, estimated for 2026 at somewhere between 29 million (Ukrainian demographers) and 32 million (IMF), depending on the source. Taking the lower figure of 29 million people living in government-controlled territory, it would be enough for 20%, or 5.8 million people, to fulfill military duty once every five years to sustain an army of over one million. In practice, this would mean a conscripted citizen serves, for example, one year, then returns to civilian life for four years.
A question of trust and organization
Yuriy Honcharenko, head of the Ukrainian Security Club, citing survey data on the rotational model, notes that people avoid service mainly because the risk of indefinite frontline deployment outweighs any possible penalty for evasion. Under a fixed service cycle with a known return date and a guaranteed recovery period, voluntary service would become the rational choice.
The conclusion drawn is that Ukraine's mobilization problems stem not from a shortage of manpower but from poor organization, inadequate communication and a lack of ethical leadership. What is missing, the argument goes, are politicians willing to take responsibility for an honest dialogue with the public and to set up a proper rotation system.
Possible elements of a solution include optimizing economic exemptions from conscription, expanding international recruitment, introducing differentiated pay, adjusting parental duties during service, ensuring gender parity in fulfilling military obligations, increasing robotization along the front line, and updating the territorial defense system. The key factor, however, remains the willingness of the military and political leadership to guarantee a fair and transparent distribution of duties that allows citizens to plan their lives even amid full-scale war.
