Expert: Ukraine could expand its army without open-ended conscription
Ukrainian security analyst Yuriy Honcharenko proposes a rotational military service model that could build an army of over a million troops without indefinite mobilization. He argues the main problem is not a shortage of people but poor organization and uncertainty over service length.
Yuriy Honcharenko, head of the Ukrainian Security Club and a project leader at the NGO "Foundation for Democracy Promotion," has laid out calculations suggesting Ukraine could maintain a permanent, effective army of more than a million troops without introducing indefinite military service.
The calculation
Estimates of Ukraine's 2026 population range from about 29 million (Ukrainian demographers) to 32 million (IMF data). Even using the lower figure of 29 million people in government-controlled territory, having just 20% of them — 5.8 million people — fulfil military duty once every five years would be enough to sustain a standing army of over a million service members. In practice, this would mean a conscript might serve, for example, one year, then return to civilian life for four years.
Honcharenko argues such a system would make Ukraine effectively unconquerable, since having more than six million combat-capable troops and a trained reserve would rule out any enemy plan for a quick victory.
Why people avoid service
Research shows the main factors deterring citizens from service are uncertainty over service length, unfair mobilization practices, and the lack of regular rotation, which prevents people from planning their futures. According to Honcharenko, surveys on a rotational service model show people choose evasion because the risks of indefinite frontline deployment outweigh any potential penalties. With a fixed service cycle and a guaranteed return date and recovery period, voluntary service would become the rational choice.
What needs to change
Honcharenko states the mobilization problem stems not from a shortage of people but from poor organization, weak communication and a lack of necessary ethics. Building a rotational system would require multiple components: optimizing economic exemptions, expanding international recruitment, introducing a differentiated pay system, increasing robotization along the front line, and updating territorial defence arrangements. The decisive factor, he says, is trust — the political and military leadership's willingness to guarantee fair and transparent fulfilment of service, allowing citizens to realistically plan their lives even amid full-scale war.
