Risk of higher electricity prices this autumn greater than last year, energy firm warns
Despite record solar and wind output, Baltic electricity prices this summer were a third higher than a year earlier, and energy company Enefit warns the risk of further price increases this autumn is now greater than last year.
Representatives of energy company Enefit told the LETA news agency that the risk of rising electricity prices in the Baltics is currently higher than a year ago, with future price trends set to depend largely on hydropower and wind generation in the Nordic countries, as well as weather conditions.
Record output, yet prices still rose
Between June and August, the Baltic states generated more than 3.6 terawatt-hours of solar and wind energy combined, 43% more than in summer 2025. Solar generation in Latvia more than doubled compared with the previous summer, while Lithuania saw a 56.4% increase and Estonia a 3.4% rise. Lithuania accounted for the bulk of the region's growth in wind energy output.
Despite these gains, the average electricity price in the Baltics this summer was 34% higher than a year earlier, reaching 0.074 euro per kilowatt-hour. In Latvia the price was even higher, at 0.082 euro per kWh — up 45.8% year-on-year.
Reasons behind the increase
Enefit points to limited capacity on the Estonia-Latvia interconnector as a key factor, which restricted the flow of cheaper Finnish electricity into Latvia. In August, the average price in Estonia was 0.059 euro per kWh, compared with 0.08 euro per kWh in Latvia and Lithuania. Prices in Finland also climbed, from 0.015 euro per kWh in July to 0.041 euro per kWh in August, driving up import costs across the region.
Lower hydropower output in Latvia also played a role — last summer, hydroelectric plants in the region produced roughly 86% more electricity, which had helped curb prices during evening hours when solar generation declines.
Romans Tjurins, head of Enefit's portfolio management and market research division, notes that growth in renewable output alone does not guarantee lower prices, since the timing of generation and cross-border transmission capacity also matter.
Outlook for autumn
According to Enefit, electricity prices in the coming months will be shaped by wind energy availability, precipitation levels, air temperature and developments in global energy markets. Supply disruptions stemming from the Hormuz crisis have already pushed up natural gas prices, while rising emissions allowance costs are adding further pressure on European electricity prices.
The hydrological situation in the Nordic countries is also uncertain — water levels in Norwegian reservoirs ahead of the high-consumption season are at their lowest in 30 years. If autumn rainfall proves insufficient, electricity prices in the Nordics could rise, affecting the Baltic region as well.
Tjurins stresses that if low hydropower output and limited wind generation persist in the Nordic countries, Latvia will also feel the impact of higher electricity prices. However, the final outcome will still hinge on weather conditions — a windier, rainier autumn could significantly change the picture.
