Estonia poll: Centre Party–Isamaa coalition is the most preferred government option

If Estonia held parliamentary elections today, the government option most favoured by residents would be a coalition of the Centre Party and Isamaa. It would be backed by 29% of respondents, according to a poll by a social research service and the Institute of Social Research. A further 30% of respondents could not choose a suitable option.

Participants were asked to pick the best government coalition from options that would hold a majority in the Riigikogu, Estonia's parliament. In second place, with 19%, was a coalition of Isamaa, the Social Democrats and the Reform Party. An alliance of the Centre Party, the Social Democrats and the Reform Party was chosen by 9%, and a coalition of the Centre Party, the Social Democrats and EKRE by 8%. The remaining options received between 1% and 4%.

Seat distribution in the Riigikogu

Based on calculations from the latest party ratings, the Centre Party would win 26 seats, Isamaa 25, the Social Democratic Party 18, EKRE 14, the Reform Party 12 and the Right-wingers ("Parempoolsed") 6.

Comparison with the previous poll

In the previous similar poll, held at the end of September, the most popular option was a coalition of Isamaa, the Centre Party and EKRE, preferred by 25% of participants. Because party ratings have changed, that option was not offered in the current poll. The source notes that preferences differ markedly depending on party sympathies.

Parties that should stay out of government

Respondents were also asked which parties should under no circumstances join the government. The Reform Party was named most often, with 42% opposing its participation. It was followed by Eesti 200 (40%), EKRE (39%), the Right-wingers (26%), the Social Democrats (21%), the Centre Party (11%) and Isamaa (9%).

The Norstat poll was conducted online from 30 October to 1 November among Estonian citizens aged 18 and over. A total of 1,000 people took part.