Iskandaryan: Armenia Aspires to EU, But This Decade Is Not Serious

Following the recent parliamentary elections in Armenia, the ruling Civil Contract party has won again, but according to experts, its social legitimacy has decreased. External and bureaucratic legitimacy, on the contrary, have increased.

Political analyst Alexander Iskandaryan stated in an interview that Yerevan's desire to move closer to the West is clear, but talk of joining the European Union this decade is not serious. Armenia is trying to diversify its foreign policy to avoid becoming another Belarus, while continuing cooperation with Russia.

Iskandaryan emphasizes that despite the sharp rhetoric before the elections, Armenia must cooperate with Russia due to economic ties: 40% of exports go to Russia, and the country imports gas. Formally, Armenia remains a member of the Eurasian Economic Union and the Collective Security Treaty Organization, although it does not participate in the latter's activities. The crisis in relations with Moscow needs to be overcome, and Prime Minister Pashinyan is expected to visit Russia.

Regarding the military conflict with Azerbaijan, the expert is skeptical about the signing of a peace treaty in the near future. Azerbaijan, after its victory in the war, has strengthened its position and grown economically, so it has no incentive to sign a document. Pashinyan's claims that only his party guarantees peace are viewed critically. The peace process could continue without an official agreement, for example, through the implementation of transport corridor projects.

Iskandaryan also notes that the supporters of the 2018 'Velvet Revolution' – young and educated people – have lost hope for rapid change and no longer support the government. Pashinyan's current electorate is mainly rural residents who vote for promises of infrastructure development.